Glass half full: Survival analysis of new rural doctor retention in Western Australia.

Abstract

To measure the time trends in retention of new rural doctors in Western Australia (WA) and identify factors associated with improved retention. Retrospective inception cohort study of the 1154 doctors first commencing rural practice in WA in 2004-2013, who provided 1222 tours of service consisting of up to eight attachments at different rural practice settings. Failure of doctor retention as evidenced by an absence from the rural medical workforce of greater than 1 year and analysed using actuarial survival methods and Cox proportional hazards regression. Comparing 2009-2013 with 2004-2008, there was an improvement of 10 percentage points in retention of new rural doctors at 2 years (58% versus 48% ) and 7 percentage points at 5 years (38% versus 31%). The retention failure rate ratio was 0.68 (95% CI, 0.58-0.83). The improvement at 5 years was largely attributable to gains in retention of those who began as GP registrars (37% versus 14%). Failure of doctor retention was lower in those who possessed procedural skills (RR 0.61, 95% CI, 0.47-0.78) and lower in international medical graduates than in those trained in Australia (RR 0.75, 95% CI, 0.59-0.95). New rural GP retention in WA has improved substantially, an observation at least consistent with government initiatives delivering a positive return. However, it remains the case that the majority of new doctors have left rural practice within 5 years of commencing their tour of service.