Glacial lake outburst flood risk assessment using remote sensing and hydrodynamic modeling: a case study of Satluj basin, Western Himalayas, India.

Abstract

Glacier-associated hazards are becoming a common and serious challenge to the high mountainous regions of the world. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are one of the most serious unanticipated glacier hazards, with the potential to release a huge amount of water and debris in a short span of time, resulting in the loss of lives, property, and severe damage to downstream valleys. The present study used multi-temporal Landsat and Google earth imageries to analyze the spatio-temporal dynamism of the selected glacial lake (moraine-dammed) in the Satluj basin of Western Himalayas. Furthermore, GLOF susceptibility of the lake was assessed using a multi-criteria decision-based method. The results show that the lake area has increased from 0.11 to 0.26 km2 over the past 28years from 1990 to 2018. The susceptibility index value for the lake was calculated as 0.75, which indicates that the lake is highly susceptible to the GLOF. The depth and volume of the lake were estimated to be 16m and 57 × 105 m3, respectively, using an empirical formula. HEC-RAS, HECGeo-RAS, and Arc-GIS software were utilized in this study to perform unsteady flow analysis and to determine the GLOF impact on the downstream area. The worst-caseGLOF scenario(breach width of 75m) was revealed during an overtopping failure of the moraine dam, resulted in a peak discharge of 4060 m3/s and releasing a total watervolume of 57 × 105 m3. The breach hydrograph has been routed to calculate the spatial and temporal distribution of peak flood, inundation depth, velocity, water surface elevation, and flood peak arrival time along the river channel. The analysis further reveals that the routed flood waves reach the nearest settlement, i.e., Rajpur town, situated at a distance of 102km in the downstream valley of the lake at 6h after the beginning of the lake breach event with a peak discharge/flood of 1757 m3/s and maximum flow velocity of 1.5m/s. With the ongoing climate warming and glacier retreat, moraine-dammed lakes are becoming more hazardous and thus increasing the total threat. Therefore, it is mandatory to monitor and assess such lakes at regular intervals of time to lessen the disastrous impacts of GLOFs on the livelihood and infrastructure in the downstream valleys. The findings of this study will aid in the creation of risk management plans, preparatory tactics, and risk reduction techniques for GLOF hazards in the region.