Glacial Area Changes in the Ili River Catchment (Northeastern Tian Shan) in Xinjiang, China, from the 1960s to 2009

Junli Xu,Wanqin Guo,Zhen Zhang,Shiyin Liu,Junfeng Wei,Tong Feng

doi:10.1155/2015/847257

Junli Xu, Wanqin Guo + Show 4 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1155/2015/847257

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Abstract

The Ili River originates in the Tian Shan Mountains of Northwest China before flowing into Kazakhstan and Lake Balkash. Melting snow and ice are its major contributors. We analyzed glacial changes in the upper Ili River basin between the 1960s and 2007/2009 using topographic maps and satellite imagery from a Landsat TM. The relationships between glacial changes and glacial size, topographic factors, and debris cover were examined. Our results found that total glacial area decreased by 485 ± 177.3 km2(24.2% ± 8.8%) during the study period, and there were no advancing glaciers. Additionally, 331 glaciers disappeared and 18 disintegrated into two or three smaller glaciers. This study demonstrated a linear relationship between glacial area change and elevation. Changes in glaciers smaller than 1 km2were affected by both glacial size and topographic factors, while larger ones were affected by size only. Area losses in debris-covered glaciers were smaller by 2.5% to 7.5% compared to clean ice of the same size in this basin. As in other glaciated regions, glacial retreat in the Ili River basin is attributed to global warming. The slightly increasing precipitation over the study period could not offset the ice melting.

Highlights

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that alpine glaciers respond to regional climate over a period of decades and serve as indicators of regional climate change [1]
There were no reports of glacial lake outburst floods in the study area, and many glacial lakes continue to expand in the Ili River basin as a result of glacial melting [13]
The large difference in both glacier numbers and areas as a result of this update is probably a consequence of error in the 1 : 1,000,000 maps that were used by the first Chinese inventory of glaciers (FCI)

Summary

Introduction

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reported that alpine glaciers respond to regional climate over a period of decades and serve as indicators of regional climate change [1]. Global-warming-induced snow and ice losses from the cryosphere impact socioeconomic development because rising sea levels cause coastal flooding, melting glaciers cause flooding from rapid melting and glacial lake outburst, and glacial shrinkage reduces a dependable irrigation supply [7,8,9,10]. Cryosphere-related disasters such as glacier/snow melt floods, glacial lake outburst floods, ice jam floods, and avalanches have frequently been observed in the Tian Shan region [11]. In these mountains, hazards related to drifting snow, avalanches, ice jam floods, and glacial melt floods have occurred [11, 12]. There has been little research to quantify the actual changes to glaciers [14, 15]

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