Abstract

 To improve the detection and prevention of foliage browsing insects' outbreaks it is very important to reveal the forest plots, which are the most favorable for these pests.
 The aim of this research was to predict using GIS technologies the spatial dynamics of foliage browsing insects' outbreaks in the pine stands of the State Enterprise "Kreminske FHE" (Luhansk region).
 Forest inventory databases of Production Association "Ukrderzhlisproekt" were analyzed for the SE "Kreminske FHE" as of 2001 and 2011. Rating of forest plots preferences for common pine sawfly (Diprion pini L.) and European pine sawfly (Neodiprion sertifer Geoffr.) considered the type of forest site conditions, age of stand, density of stocking, and the part of pine in the stand composition. If forest plot bordered with clear-cut, then 1 point was added to the general score of the threat.
 It was shown, that the area with high threat of European pine sawfly and common pine sawfly outbreaks for 2001–2011 increased in the forest fund of the SE "Kreminske FHE" by 702.8 and 2004.2 hectares respectively. The part of foci area made up 27.5 and 32 % from forest fund area, 42.5 % and 49.5 % from pine stands area for European pine sawfly and common pine sawfly respectively.
 The areas of pine sawflies foci increased mainly in result of decrease the stocking density of pine stands and increase the number of plots which border with clear-cuts.
 The survey for pine sawflies is recommended to carry out first of all in the plots with high threat of foci appearance.
Highlights
Mass propagation of foliage browsing insects is one of the most important causes of forest weakening (Behmer et al, 2012, Branco et al, 2016, Isaev et al, 2015, Kollberg et al, 2013, Liebhold et al, 2008, Morin & Liebhold, 2015)
Much attention was devoted to revealing the regularities of spatial & temporal population dynamics of such pests (Allstadt et al, 2013, Berggren et al, 2009, Bjorkman et al, 2011, Peltonen et al, 2002, Pimental et al, 2017) as well as their outbreaks prediction, especially under climate change (Haynes et al, 2012, 2014, Logan et al, 2003, Neuvonen & Viiri, 2017)
A rating of forest plots preferences for the main species of foliage browsing insects was carried out considering the type of forest site conditions, age of stand, density of stocking, and the part of pine in the stand composition
Summary
Mass propagation of foliage browsing insects (outbreaks) is one of the most important causes of forest weakening (Behmer et al, 2012, Branco et al, 2016, Isaev et al, 2015, Kollberg et al, 2013, Liebhold et al, 2008, Morin & Liebhold, 2015). Methodical approach for evaluation of individual plots preferences for the most spread foliage browsing insects was developed by Meshkova (2009) and tested in Kharkiv (Meshkova, 2006a, 2006b), Kherson, Luhansk (Meshkova & Kolienkina, 2016) and Zhytomyr regions of Ukraine (Andreieva, 2009). According to this approach, a rating of forest plots preferences for the main species of foliage browsing insects was carried out considering the type of forest site conditions, age of stand, density of stocking, and the part of pine in the stand composition. The plots with maximal threat of foliage browsing insects’ outbreaks are recommended for high priority field inspection, and total area of such plots in the forest stand corresponds to the potential area of certain pest focus in the years of its outbreak
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