GIS-based data-driven bivariate statistical models for landslide susceptibility prediction in Upper Tista Basin, India

Abstract

Predicting landslides is becoming a crucial global challenge for sustainable development in mountainous areas. This research compares the landslide susceptibility maps (LSMs) prepared from five GIS-based data-driven bivariate statistical models, namely, (a) Frequency Ratio (FR), (b) Index of Entropy (IOE), (c) Statistical Index (SI), (d) Modified Information Value Model (MIV) and (e) Evidential Belief Function (EBF). These five models were tested in the high landslides-prone humid sub-tropical type Upper Tista basin of the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya by integrating the GIS and remote sensing. The landslide inventory map consisting of 477 landslide locations was prepared, and about 70% of all landslide data was utilized for training the model, and 30% was used to validate it after training. A total of fourteen landslide triggering parameters (elevation, slope, aspect, curvature, roughness, stream power index, TWI, distance to stream, distance to road, NDVI, LULC, rainfall, modified fournier index, and lithology) were taken into consideration for preparing the LSMs. The multicollinearity statistics revealed no collinearity problem among the fourteen causative factors used in this study. Based on the FR, MIV, IOE, SI, and EBF approaches, 12.00%, 21.46%, 28.53%, 31.42%, and 14.17% areas, respectively, identified in the high and very high landslide-prone zones. The research also revealed that the IOE model has the highest training accuracy of 95.80%, followed by SI (92.60%), MIV (92.20%), FR (91.50%), and EBF (89.90%) models. Consistent with the actual distribution of landslides, the very high, high, and medium hazardous zones stretch along the Tista River and major roads. The suggested landslide susceptibility models have enough accuracy for usage in landslide mitigation and long-term land use planning in the study area. Decision-makers and local planners may utilise the study's findings. The techniques for determining landslide susceptibility can also be employed in other Himalayan regions to manage and evaluate landslide hazards.