Abstract
Abstract. The main issue in determining seismic vulnerability is having a comprehensive view of all probable damages related to earthquake occurrence. Therefore, taking into account factors such as peak ground acceleration at the time of earthquake occurrence, the type of structures, population distribution among different age groups, level of education and the physical distance to hospitals (or medical care centers) and categorizing them into four indicators of geotechnical, structural, social and physical distance to needed facilities and from dangerous ones will provide us with a better and more exact outcome. To this end, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to study the importance of criteria or alternatives and uses the geographical information system to study the vulnerability of Tehran to an earthquake. This study focuses on the fact that Tehran is surrounded by three active and major faults: Mosha, North Tehran and Rey. In order to comprehensively determine the vulnerability, three scenarios are developed. In each scenario, seismic vulnerability of different areas in Tehran is analyzed and classified into four levels: high, medium, low and safe. The results show that, regarding seismic vulnerability, the faults of Mosha, North Tehran and Rey make, respectively, 6, 16 and 10% of Tehran highly vulnerable, while 34, 14 and 27% is safe.
Highlights
The Iranian plateau is located between two plates of Eurasia and Arabia as a part of the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt and is among the world’s most active seismic areas
Analysis of seismic vulnerability conducted according to geotechnical viewpoint over the entirety of Tehran shows that proximity of the Mosha Fault to the north and northeast of Tehran and its intersection with the North Tehran Fault has put Tehran in the vicinity of the seismic zone of the fault
Since the North Tehran Fault passes through all northern districts of Tehran, and a part of residential structures in districts 1, 3 and 4 are constructed on it or its hanging wall, these areas are prone to direct disruption of the earthquake fault
Summary
The Iranian plateau is located between two plates of Eurasia and Arabia as a part of the Alpine–Himalayan orogenic belt and is among the world’s most active seismic areas Tectonic activities in this scope are the result of northward Arabian plate movement towards Eurasia and reveal the convergence of these two plates (Berberian, 1981; Hessami et al, 2001; Allen et al, 2004). GPS studies show that the Arabian plate is moving about from 21 to 25 mm northward each year (Sella et al, 2002; Vernant et al, 2004) The result of this movement on the Iranian plateau is varied due to the existence of different geological structures in different locations (Hessami et al, 2006), such that the amount of movement is up to 18 mm per year in the Makran subduction zone and 8 mm in Koppeh Dagh.
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