GIS-Based Visitor Count Prediction and Environmental Susceptibility Zoning in Protected Areas: A Case Study in Plitvice Lakes National Park, Croatia

Abstract

The most valuable protected natural areas, including national parks, are subjected to the increased visitors count and density, threatening the environmental sustainability and biodiversity conservation. To establish a basis for land management to mitigate these influences, the novel geographic information (GIS)-based environmental susceptibility zoning method was proposed. The study area covered the Plitvice Lakes National Park, as the oldest and largest national park in Croatia, using the historical 20-year visitor data with 19 tourist and hiking routes. Two geospatial analysis methods were evaluated as follows: (1) short-term prediction of visitors count data based on a 10-year historical intervals, and (2) the environmental susceptibility zones delineation method integrated two fundamental factors in the assessment of environmental impacts from route density and historical visitors count on a monthly basis. Four accuracy assessment metrics indicated a moderate accuracy of short-term visitors count prediction, with the coefficient of determination ranging from 0.700 to 0.951. The routes which continue from both entrances indicated the largest visitors load is in the central part of the park, mostly located in the moderately restricted zone. These observations indicated moderate present environmental susceptibility with stable outlook, providing an insight for the nature park management adjustment.