Abstract
GIS-based multicriteria evaluation (MCE) provides a framework for analysing complex decision problems by quantifying variables of interest to score potential locations according to their suitability. In the context of earthquake preparedness and post-disaster response, MCE has relied mainly on uninformed or non-expert stakeholders to identify high-risk zones, prioritise areas for response, or highlight vulnerable populations. In this study, we compare uninformed, informed non-expert, and expert stakeholders’ responses in MCE modelling for earthquake response planning in Vancouver, Canada. Using medium- to low-complexity MCE models, we highlight similarities and differences in the importance of infrastructural and socioeconomic variables, emergency services, and liquefaction potential between a non-weighted MCE, a medium-complexity informed non-expert MCE, and a low-complexity MCE informed by 35 local earthquake planning and response experts from governmental and non-governmental organisations. Differences in the observed results underscore the importance of accessible, expert-informed approaches for prioritising locations for earthquake response planning and for the efficient and geographically precise allocation of resources.
Highlights
Between 1980 and 2018, there were 1397 deadly earthquakes on Earth, causing an estimated 822,499 deaths and economic losses of US$ 935bn (Münchener RückversicherungsGersellschaft 2019)
We present an expert-driven and replicable methodology for conducting GIS-based multicriteria evaluation (MCE) to support earthquake planning and response operations
The tools and methods can be replicated with free open-source data and software, and do not require MCE expert facilitation or complex arithmetic/statistical calculations
Summary
Between 1980 and 2018, there were 1397 deadly earthquakes on Earth, causing an estimated 822,499 deaths and economic losses of US$ 935bn (Münchener RückversicherungsGersellschaft 2019). Of those events, 115 (8%) were classified as catastrophic, accounting for 98% of the total deaths and 94.6% of the total economic loss in this time period (ibid). Given the high loss of life and damage in catastrophic events, many governmental organisations in high-risk areas have sought to develop, improve, and implement major earthquake preparedness and response plans. Priorities of response efforts in the event of a major earthquake are to rapidly address injuries, conduct evacuations, and assess, contain, and repair damage to critical infrastructure. The city is located in south-western British Columbia, approximately 200 km from the Cascadia Subduction Zone, where the oceanic Juan de Fuca plate is moving down beneath the continental North America plate
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