Abstract
The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR; Vojvodina, Serbia) is facing a fast successional process. Open sand steppe habitats, considered as regional biodiversity hotspots, have drastically decreased over the last 25 years. This study combines multi-temporal and –spectral remotely sensed data, in-situ sampling techniques and geospatial modelling procedures to estimate and predict the potential development of open habitats and their biota from the perspective of antlions (Neuroptera, Myrmeleontidae). It was confirmed that vegetation density increased in all parts of the study area between 1992 and 2017. Climate change, manifested in the mean annual precipitation amount, significantly contributes to the speed of succession that could be completed within a 50-year period. Open grassland habitats could reach an alarming fragmentation rate by 2075 (covering 50 times less area than today), according to selected global climate models and emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). However, M. trigrammus could probably survive in the DSSNR until the first half of the century, but its subsequent fate is very uncertain. The information provided in this study can serve for effective management of sand steppes, and antlions should be considered important indicators for conservation monitoring and planning.
Highlights
Palaearctic grasslands are among the most threatened biomes on Earth, with one of them – the sand steppe being the most endangered[1,2]
Based on these facts and examples of good practice, we aimed to develop a predictive geospatial model to evaluate the prospects for the Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR) and its antlions (Myrmecaelurus trigrammus (Pallas, 1771) in particular) if conservation actions are not implemented
The following research questions were addressed: (1) How rapid is the succession process in the DSSNR? (2) How many open habitats have been lost over the last 25 years, and how many will survive by the end of the century? (3) How will the succession process, triggered by land abandonment and climate change, affect the existing antlion population in future years? And (4), can antlions be considered as an indicator species in the sand steppes for conservation monitoring and planning?
Summary
Palaearctic grasslands are among the most threatened biomes on Earth, with one of them – the sand steppe being the most endangered[1,2]. The Deliblato Sands Special Nature Reserve (DSSNR) is a protected area in the Vojvodina Province, Serbia (Fig. 1) This geo-morphological formation of eolian origin is located between the river Danube and the southwestern slopes of the Carpathian Mountains. The ecological succession (overgrowth) process, here and there interrupted by human activity in the form of vineyard plantation and cattle grazing, before the protection of the DSSNR in 197723,24, has left behind only sporadic or mosaic sandy areas These areas (habitats comprising bare soil and short-turf grasslands) are inhabited by specific groups of insects, which can be considered as ecological indicators in such environments. The following research questions were addressed: (1) How rapid is the succession process in the DSSNR? (2) How many open habitats have been lost over the last 25 years, and how many will survive by the end of the century? (3) How will the succession process, triggered by land abandonment and climate change, affect the existing antlion population in future years? And (4), can antlions be considered as an indicator species in the sand steppes for conservation monitoring and planning?
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