GIS-based modeling of potential yield distributions for different oat varieties in China

Abstract

Cultivation of the common oat ( Avena sativa L.) and the naked oat ( Avena nuda L.) can be highly productive in many types of environments because these species are tolerant to infertile, dry and salty environments. In this study, we modeled the distribution of potential yields for different varieties of oat in China based on GIS assessments. We analyzed the yield of three oat varieties under different environmental conditions and created a model of factors significantly correlated with yield. Stepwise regression models were constructed for each oat variety, and the potential yield distributions were calculated for each variety. Correlating oat variety yield with environmental factors showed that precipitation and soil nutrition content were the most important factors in oat production. Precipitation and soil nutrition during the month of April were positively correlated with yield, while temperature and wind speed in July were negatively correlated with yield. The common oat variety “Qingyj444” was capable of producing a fresh grass yield of 30,000 kg/hm 2 in western Sichuan, the southwest of Gansu, and certain parts of Qinghai and Heilongjiang province. The naked oat varieties “Bayou3” and “Pin5” produced high yields of 3000 kg/hm 2 in Heilongjiang, the regions north of Shanxi, east of Neimenggu and the southern Gansu province, areas with high quality rain and soil nutrition conditions. We constructed a “China Crop Mapping Decision System” based on our findings, and this system is accessible through the internet and will facilitate informed agricultural decision-making.