GIS-Based Agricultural Land Use Favorability Assessment in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study of the Apuseni Mountains

Abstract

With an emphasis on the effects of climate change, this study offers a thorough GIS-based assessment of land use favorability in the Apuseni Mountains. The Apuseni Mountains, a region characterized by its biodiversity and complex terrain, are increasingly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, which threaten both natural ecosystems and human activities. The territory of 11 territorial administrative units was selected for the investigation because it shows more of an anthropogenic influence due to the migration of people to mountainous areas following the COVID-19 pandemic, which increased the amount of anthropogenic pressure in this area. Factors that describe the climate of the study area, the soil characteristics, and the morphometric characteristics of the relief were used to create a classification for the present on classes of favorability and restrictiveness for the plots of land, using a quantitative GIS model to determine the favorability of the land for the main crops and agricultural uses. The current land favorability was thus initially obtained, taking into account current temperature and precipitation values and using the SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for the 2020–2099 time frame. The results indicate a variation in the statistical classification of the land for different favorability classes, a decrease of 4.7% for the high favorability class for pastures, an estimated decrease of 4.4% for grassland, and in the case of orchards, the situation reflects a fluctuating variation. There is a decrease of 6.4% in the case of the very low favorability class according to SSP2-4.5 (in the case of reaching an average temperature of 12.7 °C and an annual precipitation of 895 mm), and in case of high and very high favorability, there is an increase in plots falling into better high favorability classes of up to 0.7%.