Abstract
International collaborations over the years have produced a series of prognostic models for primary myelofibrosis (PMF), including the recently unveiled mutation-enhanced international prognostic scoring systems for transplant-age patients (MIPSS70 and MIPSS70-plus). In the current study, we considered the feasibility of a genetically inspired prognostic scoring system (GIPSS) that is exclusively based on genetic markers. Among 641 cytogenetically annotated patients with PMF and informative for previously recognized adverse mutations, multivariable analysis identified “VHR” karyotype, “unfavorable” karyotype, absence of type 1/like CALR mutation and presence of ASXL1, SRSF2, or U2AF1Q157 mutation, as inter-independent predictors of inferior survival; the respective HRs (95% CI) were 3.1 (2.1–4.3), 2.1 (1.6–2.7), 2.1 (1.6–2.9), 1.8 (1.5–2.3), 2.4 (1.9–3.2), and 2.4 (1.7–3.3). Based on HR-weighted risk points, a four-tiered GIPSS model was devised: low (zero points; n = 58), intermediate-1 (1 point; n = 260), intermediate-2 (2 points; n = 192), and high (≥3 points; n = 131); the respective median (5-year) survivals were 26.4 (94%), 8.0 (73%), 4.2 (40%), and 2 (14%) years; the model was internally validated by bootstrapping and its predictive accuracy was shown to be comparable to that of MIPSS70-plus. GIPPS offers a low-complexity prognostic tool for PMF that is solely dependent on genetic risk factors and, thus, forward-looking in its essence.
Highlights
Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is an aggressive myeloid malignancy with an estimated median survival of 6 years [1]
High-molecular risk mutations included in the current report were selected based on previous reports of prognostic relevance and included ASXL1, SRSF2, EZH2, IDH1/2, and U2AF1 [17, 18]; in order to secure optimal sample size and statistical validity, the current study required a minimum of 500 informative cases for a specific mutation to be included in the analysis
Cytogenetic information was first incorporated into the dynamic international prognostic scoring system (DIPSS) model, resulting in DIPSS-plus [20], and more recently both cytogenetic and mutation information were utilized in the development of MIPSS70-plus [6]
Summary
Primary myelofibrosis (PMF) is an aggressive myeloid malignancy with an estimated median survival of 6 years [1]. Patients with PMF are at risk for impaired quality of life, as a result of frequent red blood cell transfusion requirement, markedly enlarged spleen and liver, severe constitutional symptoms, cachexia and consequences of portal hypertension, such as ascites, edema, and recurrent gastrointestinal bleeding. Employed treatment modalities in PMF (e.g., JAK2 inhibitors, hydroxyurea, immunomodulatory drugs, androgen preparations, corticosteroids, involved-field radiation, and splenectomy), with the exception of allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplant (alloSCT), do not modify the natural history of the disease and their value is limited to symptom palliation [2]. AlloSCT currently remains the treatment of choice in PMF, if the goal of therapy was to prolong life.
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