Giant hail in Poland produced by a supercell merger in extreme instability – A sign of a warming climate?

Abstract

Severe thunderstorms that occurred on 11 June 2019 over eastern Germany and western Poland caused severe material losses primarily due to large hail. This work documents a detailed inventorization of 79 large hail reports collected in the densely populated area of Gorzów Wielkopolski in Poland, including the largest with a diameter of 12 cm and heaviest with a weight of 380 g. Evaluation of environmental and Doppler radar data indicate that three unique aspects characterize this event. Firstly, the storm benefited from a favorable convective environment including a record-high CAPE exceeding 4000 J kg−1 that was the highest ever measured value at a proximity rawinsonde station of Lindenberg, and the highest for this region according to ERA5 since 1950. Secondly, moisture pooling along the convergence zone led to convective initiation of 3 isolated cells that merged together. Two of them with already embedded rotation. This merger subsequently evolved into a single powerful mesocyclone that was a main cause of giant hail. Subtle differences in the orography within Warta river valley could have played a role in the merging process. Third, a supercell had the biggest intensity over a densely populated area, which led to considerable material losses, but also allowed collection of a large number of hail reports. Distribution of these reports indicates that peak hail size varied significantly on very small distances. Storm has been producing giant hail for around 20-min over a distance of around 10 km and was preceded by a well-developed velocity couplet, bounded weak echo region and hook-echo signatures on the Doppler radar scans.