Abstract
Energy crop expansion can increase land demand and generate displacement of food crops, which impacts greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mainly through land-use change (LUC). Increased agricultural productivity could compensate for this. Our study aims to evaluate the regional combined GHG emissions of increasing agricultural yields for food crop and beef production and using the generated surplus land for biomass production to replace fossil fuels in the Orinoquia region of Colombia until 2030. The results show that surplus land for biomass production is obtained only when strong measures are applied to increase agricultural productivity. In the medium and high scenario, a land surplus of 0.6 and 2.4 Mha, respectively, could be generated. Such intensification results in up to 83% emission reduction in Orinoquia’s agricultural sector, largely coming from increasing productivity of cattle production and improving degraded pastures. Biofuel potential from the surplus land is projected at 36 to 368 PJ per year, with a low risk of causing indirect LUC, and results in GHG emission reductions of more than 100% compared to its fossil fuel equivalent. An integrated perspective of the agricultural land use enables sustainable production of both food and bioenergy.
Highlights
Based on the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, bioenergy production has increased in the past decades and it is projected to continue to grow [1]
The results highlight that sustainable intensification is a key measure to reduce GHG emissions associated with agriculture in the region and to produce low-ILUC-risk bioenergy
The total GHG balance of future agricultural land use in the Orinoquia region was analyzed for different agricultural intensification scenarios and using the generated surplus land for energy crops
Summary
Based on the need to reduce fossil fuel consumption and GHG emissions, bioenergy production has increased in the past decades and it is projected to continue to grow [1]. Expansion of energy crop production could incur increased land demand, and thereby increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions due to direct and indirect land-use change ((I)LUC) [2] To minimize these effects, the sustainability criteria of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) require low-ILUC risk-biofuels and minimum GHG emission savings compared to the fossil fuel equivalent [2]. The area within the agricultural frontier could be used for agricultural expansion to accommodate the projected increase in demand for agricultural products and for energy crop production, given that the land within this agricultural frontier consists mainly of natural vegetation, this is highly likely to result in high LUC-related GHG emission and other negative environmental impacts. To increase agricultural production sustainably and produce low-ILUC-risk energy crops, agricultural intensification is required
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