Abstract
The decisions by the National Party government and the African National Congress-led opposition to initiate direct official negotiation in 1990 were based on the respective leaderships’ calculations of their current and future relative power, as well as on internal political considerations. This analysis of each side’s decision-making highlights political processes that link levels of analysis, particularly changes in threat perception and shifts in domestic politics in response to international and regional shifts, that created incentives for leadership change and negotiation for National Party leaders. Internal and external influences on ANC decision-making are also considered.
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