Abstract
BackgroundThere is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy.MethodsWe conducted a retrospective cohort study of mothers who gave birth to their first two children in New South Wales, 1994–2016 (N = 517,558 mothers). For each week of final gestational age of the first birth, we calculated relative and absolute risks of subsequent preterm birth.ResultsFor mothers whose first birth had a gestational age of 22 to 30 weeks the absolute risks of clinically significant preterm second birth (before 28, 32, and 34 weeks) were all less than 14%. For all gestational ages of the first child the median gestational ages of the second child were all at least 38 weeks. Sensitivity and positive predictive values were all below 30%.ConclusionPrevious gestational age alone is a poor predictor of subsequent risk of preterm birth.
Highlights
Preterm birth, most commonly defined as birth before 37 weeks of completed gestation, has a global prevalence of approximately 11% of viable fetuses [1]
The national prevalence of preterm birth in Australia is similar to the global average, at approximately 9%, but can vary considerably by ethnicity and obstetric history [3]
Relative risks tend to be elevated at a similar gestational ages to the previous
Summary
Most commonly defined as birth before 37 weeks of completed gestation, has a global prevalence of approximately 11% of viable fetuses [1]. The national prevalence of preterm birth in Australia is similar to the global average, at approximately 9%, but can vary considerably by ethnicity and obstetric history [3]. Previous preterm birth is a strong risk factor for preterm birth in later pregnancies [4,5,6,7]. Relative risks tend to be elevated at a similar gestational ages to the previous. Pereira et al BMC Pregnancy and Childbirth (2021) 21:607 of the previous pregnancy, and to estimate predictive ability. There is no validated evidence base on predictive ability and absolute risk of preterm birth by gestational age of the previous pregnancy
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