Gestalt clinical severity score (GCSS) as a predictor of patient severity of illness or injury

Abstract

ObjectiveTo determine if clinical judgement is accurate to predict the severity of injury or illness, and can be used at patient arrival when other formal scoring systems are not yet available. DesignA multicenter pilot study using a prospective observational convenience sample of patients arriving by EMS to the emergency department (ED) or Trauma Center. SettingTwo urban, Level 1 trauma centers at academic tertiary care hospitals. PatientsMedical and trauma patients age 18 and older transported by EMS (N = 216). Exclusion criteria (prior to arrival): intubation, assisted ventilation (BVM or NPPV), CPR in progress, prisoners, or previously present motor or speech deficits. MeasurementsCompletion of a novel 15-point scale of Verbal, Motor, and Facial Expression within 1–2 min of arrival by a clinician outside of the treatment team. Primary endpoint was the immediate disposition from the ED or Trauma Center: Home, Brief Observation (<24 h), Admission to Floor, ICU (OR and IR as surrogates since these patients ultimately go to the ICU), or Morgue. ResultsUnivariate analysis revealed a strong, positive monotonic correlation between GCSS and disposition (Rho = 0.693, p < .0001). Multivariable logistic regression revealed the “best” model included GCSS and age (group 18–44 years old versus all the other age groups) (p < .0001). There was a 156% increase in the odds of being discharged home (versus being admitted) for a one-unit increase in GCSS (OR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.94, 3.37). ConclusionsPhysicians can make accurate predictions of severity of injury and illness using a gestalt method and the scoring system we have developed as patient disposition correlates well with GCSS score. GCSS is most accurate with the 18–44 age group.