Germany SimSmoke: The Effect of Tobacco Control Policies on Future Smoking Prevalence and Smoking-Attributable Deaths in Germany

Abstract

Although Germany has recently implemented some tobacco control policies, there is considerable scope to strengthen policies consistent with the MPOWER guidelines. This article describes the development of a simulation model projecting the effect of future tobacco control policies in Germany on smoking prevalence and associated premature mortality. Germany SimSmoke-an adapted version of the SimSmoke simulation model of tobacco control policy-uses population, smoking rates, and policy data for Germany. It assesses, individually and in combination, the effect of seven types of policies: taxes, smoke-free air laws, mass media campaigns, advertising bans, warning labels, cessation treatment, and youth access policies. With a comprehensive set of policies, smoking prevalence within the first few years can be reduced by about 22.0% relative to the status quo and by 37.9% (40.5%) for males (females) in 30 years. By 2040, 39,548 deaths could be averted in that year alone. Without stronger policies, 700,000 additional smoking-attributable deaths (SADs) would occur in Germany over the next 30 years. The model indicates that the consequences of inaction are considerable; without the implementation of a stronger set of policies, smoking prevalence rates will remain relatively stable, and SADs among women will continue to rise over a 30-year horizon. Significant inroads into reducing smoking prevalence and premature mortality can be achieved through strengthening tobacco control policies in line with MPOWER recommendations.