German's oil footprint: An input-output and structural decomposition analysis

Abstract

Abstract It is generally thought that the country with net exports in goods is also a net exporter of energy embodied in goods. In this work, we report a paradox phenomenon, which shows that Germany was a net goods exporter but also a net importer of embodied oil. Based on the multi-region input-output model and structural decomposition analysis, this paper comprehensively analyzed the changing trend and main driving factors of oil footprints in German trade. The results showed that Germany's embodied oil exports increased by 35.06% with the expansion of trade scale, and Germany's net imports of embodied oil fell by 45.49% during the study period. Although the focus of embodied oil transfer in trade was EU countries, the embodied oil trade volume between Germany and developing countries, especially China, grew rapidly. From sectoral level, heavy manufacturing and transport industry dominated more than 70% of the Germany's embodied oil trade. The decomposition analysis showed that the scale effect of final demand was the main factor that contributed to the growth of oil footprints in Germany's international trade, which offset the inhibition of oil consumption intensity. The effect of production structure played an important role in the embodied oil trade, and the low-oil-intensive industrial structure was the main reason why Germany was a net importer of embodied oil.