German leadership between change and continuity: reflections on the possible effects of “Brexit”

Abstract

In light of speculations about Germany’s growing influence in Europe post “Brexit”, the article focuses on three features which so far have proved essential for Berlin’s relations with the outside world: a strong engagement in international institutions; close bilateral relations with a wide range of partners, and the use of diplomacy and trade as tools by which to pursue foreign policy objectives. Drawing on decision-makers' assessments, key strategic documents, and recent academic analyses, the article elaborates on these key pillars of German foreign and then reflects on how they may be impacted by the UK’s decision to leave the European Union. It is argued that while “Brexit” is unlikely to significantly alter existing preferences and trends and will therefore not mark a turning point in German foreign, it might serve as a catalyst for ongoing developments and can potentially further increase German leadership in Europe. Whether this will be the case will ultimately depend, however, on member states' willingness to embrace and support a strong role for Berlin.