Geriatric Early-Stage Triple-Negative Breast Cancer Patients in Low-risk Population: Omitting Chemotherapy Based on Nomogram

Abstract

BackgroundConsidering old age and comorbidities, the actual benefit of chemotherapy in older patients with early triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) remains uncertain. We aimed to select appropriate patients who could avoid chemotherapy in this population. MethodsA total of 6482 patients more than 65 years old with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in 2010-2015 were extracted from SEER program. Multivariate logistic regression was performed to identify independent factors associated with chemotherapy usage. Survival analysis was performed using Kaplan-Meier plots and log-rank tests. Independent prognostic factors were identified by multivariate Cox analysis. A nomogram predicting breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and a risk stratification model were constructed. ResultsA total of 3379 (52.13%) patients received chemotherapy while 3103 (47.87%) did not. Age, married status, grade, T-stage, N-stage, radiation and breast-conserving surgery (BCS) were significantly associated with chemotherapy usage (all P < .05). Chemotherapy significantly improved OS (HR = 0.606, P < .001) and BCSS (HR = 0.763, P = .006) in the entire population. A nomogram was built by incorporating independent risk factors (age, T-stage, N-stage, grade and radiation). Based on the score of the nomogram, the risk stratification model demonstrated that chemotherapy improved OS (P < .001) and BCSS (P < .001) of patients in the high-risk group (score >180), but not in the low-risk group (score ≤75). ConclusionChemotherapy is beneficial for geriatric patients with T1-2N0-1M0 TNBC in this study, and the risk stratification model indicates the feasibility of sparing chemotherapy in low-risk subgroup without sacrificing survival, providing clinicians tools to weigh the risk–benefit of chemotherapy and customize the individualized treatment accordingly.