Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis Applicable to the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract

Abstract Geothermal Play Fairway Analysis (GPFA) is an exploration process adopted to geothermal, that integrates data of critical risk elements inherent to that specific geothermal play type. The key function of GPFA is to reduce risk and increase focus for improving exploration success rates. GPFA begins at the regional/basin scale, and progressively focuses in on the play scale. It then examines the critical risk element data to highlight which play areas have the highest likelihood of success (prospects). Countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are taking significant steps to address the need for more energy sustainable solutions by exploring opportunities in geothermal energy. The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA), the largest oil-producing country in the world, has previously has recently focused on its significant geothermal resource potential. Power production in the western region alone, including Ain Al Harrah's 26.99 MWt reservoir potential, is expected to contribute to 9% of KSA's 54 GW renewable energy prospective goal. KSA has recognized the need for an energy transition as outlined in its Vision 2030 plan and intends to fully operate on renewable and low carbon energy forms by 2030. This plan and shift towards sustainable energy solutions throughout the MENA region are driven by variables such as climate change regulations, fossil fuel pricing/availability, increasing greenhouse gas emissions, power potential and cost-effectiveness of geothermal energy, reduction in pollution by geothermal power plants, and increased energy demand. During this critical initial phase, successful geothermal reservoir exploration, characterization, and development will require a thorough understanding of the critical risk parameters inherent to functional geothermal systems. Of particular importance will be the reduction of uncertainty in the exploration phase. In this presentation, we will review several case studies of GPFA applications and investigate how these workflows may be applied to areas such as KSA and the greater MENA region. We will elaborate how GPFA workflows provide cost effective identification and development of geothermal resources, leading to significant risk reduction, increased investor confidence, and support the full-scale growth of geothermal in the coming energy transition.