Geothermal Energy Market Study on the Atlantic Coastal Plain. A Review of Recent Energy Price Projections for Traditional Space Heating Fuel 1985-2000

Abstract

In order to develop an initial estimate of the potential competitiveness of low temperature (45 degrees C to 100 degrees C) geothermal resources on the Eastern Coastal Plain, the Center for Metropolitant Planning and Research of The Johns Hopkins University reviewed and compared available energy price projections. Series of projections covering the post-1985 period have been made by the Energy Information Administration, Brookhaven National Laboratory, and by private research firms. Since low temperature geothermal energy will compete primarily for the space and process heating markets currently held by petroleum, natural gas, and electricity, projected trends in the real prices for these fuels were examined. The spread in the current and in projected future prices for these fuels, which often serve identical end uses, underscores the influence of specific attributes for each type of fuel, such as cleanliness, security of supply, and governmental regulation. Geothermal energy possesses several important attributes in common with electricity (e.g., ease of maintenance and perceived security of supply), and thus the price of electric space heating is likely to be an upper bound on a competitive price for geothermal energy. Competitiveness would, of course, be increased if geothermal heat could be delivered for prices closer tomore » those for oil and natural gas. The projections reviewed suggest that oil and gas prices will rise significantly in real terms over the next few decades, while electricity prices are projected to be more stable. Electricity prices will, however, remain above those for the other two fuels. The significance of this work rests on the fact that, in market economies, prices provide the fundamental signals needed for efficient resource allocation. Although market prices often fail to fully account for factors such as environmental impacts and long-term scarcity value, they nevertheless embody a considerable amount of information and are the primary guideposts for suppliers and consumers.« less