Geostatistical classification of dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe river basin

Abstract

With regard to the water quality changes, the area of the Czech part of the Elbe river basin is extraordinarily dynamic. In the 20th century it experienced an enormous increase of load of pollution. Since the beginning of the 1990's due to the political and economical changes, we have witnessed a particularly intensive decrease in the emission volume and a related increase in water quality of watercourses. However, positive changes in the pollution load balance have occurred mainly in the biggest watercourses and these changes have not been accompanied by similar development in the whole river system. Using a newly created classification methodology the basic models of dynamics of water quality changes in the Elbe river basin have been derived. Based on GIS geostatistical analysis, regions with analogous water quality development trends have been defined for selected parameters and critical areas have been identified. It has become apparent that the prevailing part of the Elbe river basin has been experiencing a gradual increase in pollution. In addition, after a previous decrease, a number of watercourses experienced a recurrence of the increase in load. These areas are priorities for further development and control of surface water protection against pollution.