Geostatistical capture–recapture models

Abstract

Methods for population estimation and inference have evolved over the past decade to allow for the incorporation of spatial information when using capture–recapture study designs. Traditional approaches to specifying spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models often rely on an individual-based detection function that decays as a detection location is farther from an individual’s activity center. Traditional SCR models are intuitive because they incorporate mechanisms of animal space use based on their assumptions about activity centers. We modify the SCR model to accommodate a wide range of space use patterns, including for those individuals that may exhibit traditional elliptical utilization distributions. Our approach uses underlying Gaussian processes to characterize the space use of individuals. This allows us to account for multimodal and other complex space use patterns that may arise due to movement. We refer to this class of models as geostatistical capture–recapture (GCR) models. We adapt a recursive computing strategy to fit GCR models to data in stages, some of which can be parallelized. This technique facilitates implementation and leverages modern multicore and distributed computing environments. We demonstrate the application of GCR models by analyzing both simulated data and a data set involving capture histories of snowshoe hares in central Colorado, USA.