Abstract
Urbanization and industrial development in the Juárez Valley, Chihuahua, Mexico, have led to the abandonment and loss of productive agricultural areas. However, the extent and dynamics of this phenomenon are not precisely known due to the lack of updated information. Therefore, it is necessary to geospatially represent these changes over time and predict their probability of persistence into the future to provide decision-making tools for this border region of Mexico. Landsat images were processed, and random forest was applied as a classifier to obtain land uses from 1980 to 2020. The Land Change Modeler options in Terrset™ were executed to generate land use changes, persistence and probabilities. Results showed that urban, built-up areas gained 19,962 ha by 2020 while crops lost 1675 ha. Agricultural permanence has been consolidated over time (persistence until 2020 of 0.83), but evidence suggests that this persistence will decrease in the future due to urbanization (decreasing to 0.59 by 2100). This could jeopardize the availability of primary products and food, lead to land abandonment and exacerbate socio-demographic expansion in this vulnerable region.
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