Geospatial modeling and analysis of COVID-19 prevalence in Lagos state Nigeria

Abstract

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic has spatial dimensions which when properly interpreted could lead to better understanding of different characteristics of the pandemic. Thus, the impact of COVID-19 can be mapped for spatial analysis of its attributes. From health science, the research needs include the ability to cross variables of different kinds to interpret the COVID-19 phenomenon, its spatial analysis and spatiotemporal dimensions, its geographical impact on decision-making and everyday life, and predictive modelling of the evolution of the disease. For these reasons, this research aimed at geospatial modelling and analysis of COVID-19 prevalence in Lagos State Nigeria with a view to determine the spread and distribution pattern of COVID-19 as well as its hotspots in Lagos State Nigeria. Its objectives are to: identify and model the spatial distribution of COVID-19 in Lagos State and map the prevalence of COVID-19 in Lagos State. The methodology involved the analysis of the spatial distribution of COVID-19 between 2020 and 2022 and COVID-19 prevalence analysis. Results indicate a substantial surge in confirmed COVID-19 cases, rising from 21,717 to 56,596 during the study period. Alimosho and Eti-Osa LGAs emerged as the most affected regions, reporting the highest total confirmed cases. Additionally, confirmed deaths increased from 4,090 in 2020 to 9,874 in 2022, with Eti-Osa consistently reporting the highest number of fatalities, followed by Ikorodu and Surulere. Assessing the prevalence of confirmed cases and deaths across different LGAs, Eti-Osa consistently exhibited the highest prevalence, indicating a significant proportion of cases and deaths relative to its population.