Geospatial assessment of climate and human pressure on Snow Leopard habitat in the Trans-Himalayan region of Pakistan

Abstract

Reliable estimates of how human activities may affect wildlife populations are critical for making scientifically sound resource management decisions. A significant issue in estimating the consequences of management, development, or conservation measures is the need to account for a variety of biotic and abiotic factors, such as land use and climate change, that interact over time altering wildlife habitats and populations. The snow leopard Panthera uncia (Schreber, 1775), as a vulnerable species, is extremely sensitive to indirect impacts of climate change. Given that it is highly difficult undertaking conservation measures on the entire range of snow leopards, identifying hotspots for conservation is necessary. This study was conducted in Bagrot and Haramosh valleys, in the Trans-Himalayan region, to evaluate the impacts of climate and human pressure on snow leopard habitat. Hybrid classification of Landsat satellite data for 2010 and 2020 was performed to elucidate land use changes that suggested a decrease in permanent snow by 10 % and 3 % in Haramosh and Bagrot while an increase in settlements cover by 16 % and 23 %, respectively. Life zone comparison for 2010 and 2020 using the Holdridge life zone (HLZ) classification system disclosed a change from three life zones to five life zones in Haramosh, and four life zones to five life zones in Bagrot, caused by a temperature increase of 2°C to 3°C, indicating that the area is becoming more and more suitable for settlements and less favorable for snow leopards. This study underlines again that mountainous regions are more vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Warming weather is making survival more difficult for snow leopards. Although they are resilient to the direct effects of climate change, indirect impacts like avalanches, flash floods, urbanization, and human-wildlife conflict make them more vulnerable and threaten their survival. Thus, we recommend establishing further protected areas, better controlling illegal wildlife trade, and conducting genetic studies to understand impacts on snow leopards and rangeland management, livelihood improvement, and human-wildlife conflict reductions.