Geospatial analysis to assess distribution patterns and predictive model for endangered Lilium mackliniae Sealy: to support management decisions.

Abstract

Lilium mackliniae Sealy is a species endemic to the Indo-Myanmar Biodiversity Hotspot with confined occurrence in the Shiruihills of Manipur (India). A rapid fragmentation of the species resulted in enlisting the remaining population as endangered. Tribal communities have managed this population in national parks for in situ conservation because of its sacred value. Maximum entropy-based modeling was performed with 19 bioclimatic and six geospatial variables on 65 true presence data to assess the threat on its only habitat. The accuracy of modeling was confirmed by an AUC value of 0.989. Among the variables used for habitat modeling, elevation range was a key predictor of the species distribution, followed by land use class and annual temperature range. Additionally, the model projected a similar habitat for the species in the same district. This study, therefore, provides essential information for the conservation and management of the species.