Geopolitical Constraints on Development Policies of Small Countries

Abstract

Unlike competitive markets with theoretically infinite number of agents whose decisions merge into a large mass of other agents’ decisions, forming prices as allocation parameters controlled by no one, international arena is characterized by a limited number of discernible subjects whose decisions have system-wide impacts and turn out significant for policies of other agents. Policies pursued by any country concern not only the country in question but influence other countries and oftentimes significantly affect the degree and manner of reaching their policy objectives. Due to the limited number of acting entities the nexus of international interactions has a notable conflict potential. Small countries are in a special situation due to their almost implied modest power implying further a significant number of independent agents whose interests have to be seriously taken into account in framing their own development and many other policies. Policies of various countries come out visibly interdependent so that other agents’ interests and actions uninterruptedly define wide enough set of constraints to be observed in formulating and implementing development policies of the country in question.Particularly important are the large, economically developed and militarily powerful countries. Their aspirations have to be carefully observed and meticulouslystudied by the small and relatively weak countries. There might emerge, and in Serbiancountries almost regularly emerges, a conflict between highly valued nationalgoals deeply rooted in history, popular myths and collective memory, on the onehand, and interests of the big powerful international players on the other. These aresettings in which baleful strategic mistakes are occasionally made and in Serbianhistory the frequency of such mistakes was rather pronounced. There has been farabove the optimum courage in Serbian history conspicuously exercised by both elitesand popular masses. The consequences of such “determinations for the kingdom ofheavens” are perilous and mistakes are dearly paid in terms of hundreds of thousandsof lost lives and wasted chances for economic and general social development.The paper ends with recommendation that the small countries endeavor to carefullyfit into interests and policies of great powers, invest equally large efforts into choosingthe right allies and adjust pragmatically to their aspirations and, as the casemight be, even to their orders. No matter how strange it may sound, bending flexiblyto the interests of the mighty may be the optimal strategy of pursuing the genuinenational objectives. For, no matter how elevated and majestic they are, they dwindleto little value if they are blocked in the process of realization and the high-mindedefforts invested in their realization get ultimately frustrated.