Geophysical risk, vulnerability, and sustainability

Abstract

The vulnerability of humans to geophysical hazards (earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, severe storms, droughts, floods, tsunamis and storm surges, and space weather) affects the sustainability of societies. Risk, over a given time, is the union of a set of likelihoods and a set of consequences of the scenarios under consideration. Consequences depend on the magnitude of the hazard, and the severity of the impacts of the hazard. For humans, vulnerability has both economic and social dimensions, thus a complete study of geophysical risks should incorporate the work of both geophysicists and social scientists. Ecological concepts can categorise vulnerability in terms of the magnitude of the impact, the stability (time to recovery) of the ecosystem, and its resilience. Stability depends on organisation (how well the ecosystem is linked internally), and connectivity-how well the species (humans) is linked to the whole ecosystem. Sustainability is the progression towards improved quality of life, both now and in the future, in a way that maintains the environmental, social and economic processes on which life depends. Because geophysical risk and vulnerability includes all three of these processes, a comprehensive study of geophysical risk and vulnerability inevitably becomes a study of at least one aspect of sustainability. The IUGG Commission on Geophysical Risk and Sustainability issued the Budapest Manifesto to provide a framework for collaboration between scientists and social scientists. The manifesto recommends that scientists examine technical and social issues and contribute to decision-making through a risk management framework.