Abstract

The tidal basin of the Kosi Bay lagoonal-lacustrine complex is dominated by fish traps that line the intertidal and subtidal environments. These have been considered significant sediment sinks, responsible for transformation of parts of the system from subtidal and intertidal sand-flat settings to mangrove habitats. Mangrove progradation has been attributed to sediment retention within the trap structures. Fish-trap counts since 1942 indicate no significant increase in trap number prior to 1980, but thereafter trap numbers have increased exponentially. Historical GIS analysis indicates a linear growth rate of mangrove areas since 1942, a trend not mirrored in the numbers of fish traps. Modelling of mangrove progradation indicates lateral extension rates per annum much lower than global figures for choked systems elsewhere. Modelling of choking thresholds for the Kosi Bay system yields a minimum date of ∼2500 AD. By including sea-level rise within the model, newly formed mangrove communities may either be drowned or remain in step with predicted sea-level rises within the next 150–200 years. The role of fish traps in the conversion of subtidal environments to sedimentary environments dominated by mangroves is negligible, and this shallowing would not be of concern in light of the short-term nature of managerial timescales.

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