Geometric Deep-Learning-Based Spatiotemporal Forecasting for Inverter-Based Solar Power

Abstract

Conventional power grids dominated by synchronous generators gradually shift to variable renewable-energy-integrated grids. With the growth of building-level photovoltaic (PV) panels and other inverter-based resource (IBR) deployments in recent years, market retailers and distribution operators have had to deal with the additional operational and management challenges posed by unobserved energy flow if its behind-the-meter (BTM) configuration. Also, the intermittent and stochastic nature of IBR-based solar power introduces uncertainty into the net load forecasting of electric distribution systems. Hence, management and control with high uncertainty in load prediction due to unobservable PV is a technical challenge. This article presents deep-learning-based algorithms for BTM PV power generation using a limited number of sensors in a given distribution system and extending to adjacent geographical areas. The proposed BTM PV forecasting method is based on geometric deep learning—a spatiotemporal graph neural network by processing the relationship between data in a non-Euclidean graph structure. The predictions of short-term BTM PV are aggregated with loss estimation at the data aggregation point with the net load forecasting to compute the true load forecasting with superior performance. The developed BTM PV forecasting method significantly improved true load forecasting results, which were validated and analyzed using a collection of actual BTM PV and load measurements in a test distribution feeder.