Abstract
AbstractLet X(t) be the flow of a certain river at time t. A geometric Brownian motion process is used as a model for X(t) and is found to give very good forecasts of future flows. The forecasted values generated by this one‐dimensional model are compared with those provided by a deterministic model that requires the evaluation of 18 entries. Based on two important criteria, the stochastic model is superior, on average, to the deterministic model for forecasts up to 4 days ahead. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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