Geomechanical risk assessment for CO2 storage in deep saline aquifers

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We study CO2 injection into a saline aquifer intersected by a tectonic fault using a coupled modeling approach to evaluate potential geomechanical risks. The simulation approach integrates the reservoir and mechanical simulators through a data transfer algorithm. MUFITS simulates non-isothermal multiphase flow in the reservoir, while FLAC3D calculates its mechanical equilibrium state. We accurately describe the tectonic fault, which consists of damage and core zones, and derive novel analytical closure relations governing the permeability alteration in the fault zone. We estimate the permeability of the activated fracture network in the damage zone and calculate the permeability of the main crack in the fault core, which opens on asperities due to slip. The coupled model is applied to simulate CO2 injection into synthetic and realistic reservoirs. In the synthetic reservoir model, we examine the impact of formation depth and initial tectonic stresses on geomechanical risks. Pronounced tectonic stresses lead to inelastic deformations in the fault zone. Regardless of the magnitude of tectonic stress, slip along the fault plane occurs, and the main crack in the fault core opens on asperities, causing CO2 leakage out of the storage aquifer. In the realistic reservoir model, we demonstrate that sufficiently high bottomhole pressure induces plastic deformations in the near-wellbore zone, interpreted as rock fracturing, without slippage along the fault plane. We perform a sensitivity analysis of the coupled model, varying the mechanical and flow properties of the storage layers and fault zone to assess fault stability and associated geomechanical risks.