Abstract

Abstract Introduction My prediction (Table 1) has been previously published in "The Wavelet", the newsletter of the geophysics group at The Department of Geology and Geophysics of The University of Calgary. To make predictions that range ten or more years ahead is quite obviously risky. This article is an expression of my personal bias, so the readership is cautioned to treat the content as a base for further debate. Most recently, to the consternation of many, crystal balls have proved murky. Economic and political experts, much like weather forecasters, cannot be trusted with predictions that extend beyond a year. There is no reason to believe that long-range technical or scientific predictions are less fragile. As one famous scientist (his name escapes me) once stated: "One cannot predict the future but one can explore its possibilities". It is hoped that this will prove to be a reasonable exploration. With this caveat firmly in mind, let us establish that all three professional groups are dealing with rocks and their fluid contents. Initially, these three operated independently with a competitive spirit that often bordered on hostility. Today geology and geophysics have been united. Any geological or geophysical meeting bears testimony to that fact. To deny it, only proves that one has acquired the status of a fossil before physical death. It is my view that geologists and geophysicists must close ranks with the engineers and abolish the current state of separation which is being perpetuated by both sides. Geology and geophysics schools gear their curricula toward the exploration for natural resources, whereas engineers consider exploitation as their exclusive domain. There is no doubt that resource exploitation requires solid engineering knowledge yet one must remember that this phase also involves rocks and for their fluid contents, and this is where geologists and geophysicists can and should fit in. Now that the term "Ultimate Recovery" equally applicable to oil production and hard rock mining-assumes a new importance, particularly in North America; all three can only benefit from cooperation. The intent is, of course, not to make an engineer out of a geologist or vice versa, but rather to upgrade each other's knowledge in the respective fields to the point where a meaningful dialogue becomes possible. One is now tempted to carry this paper further with an arm-waving campaign in favour of the interdisciplinary dialogue-another buzzword of our days-but I prefer to illustrate my point with a specific example. I choose artificial well fracturing to demonstrate how both geologists and engineers can benefit from such studies, with a direct applicability to both pure and applied science. Some readers may think I have chosen a very special subject and might be hard pressed to find another example. To set such suspicions at rest, an equally good case could be made for the concept of effective stress. Terzaghi introduced this idea into soil mechanics in 1923 (see Skempton, 1960).

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