Geological Models for the Next Decade: What Do We Need to Reduce Hydrocarbon Exploration Risk?

Abstract

Several main areas of quantitative geologic model development, needed over the next decade, are outlined using illustrative examples to emphasize need. In order of importance these areas are: (i) motion of multiple faults in 3-D tied to multi-phase fluid-flow and overpressure evolution in sediments: (ii) dynamical primary and secondary hydrocarbon migration in 3-D; (iii) self-consistent salt and sediment dynamical interactions; (iv) turbidite and sequence stratigraphic models; (v) self-consistent dynamical tectonic and sediment evolution models; (vi) integrated economic and geological relative importance and risking methods. As vital adjuncts, each area of model development should include the capabilities: (a) of forward and inverse modes of operation; (b) of being able to provide quantitative measures of uniqueness, resolution, precision and sensitivity in relation to intrinsic model assumptions, parameters in the model, numerical limits, and in respect of quality, quantity and sampling frequency of present-day data used as control information; (c) of yielding quantitative probabilistic assessments of the range of results in view of the indeterminancy of point (b); (d) of culling needed data from a common data base; (e) of being built and used in a user-friendly, technology-transferable mode. No crystal ball is perfect, so this present view of the next decade's needs in geologic modeling should be continuously up-dated and modified as future information becomes available, which will influence the values, worth, and priorities of the presently estimated future needs in geologic model requirements.