Geological hazard susceptibility assessment based on different mathematical statistical models: a case study of Zhejiang province

Abstract

Geological disaster is a great threat to people's life and property safety, how to predict it reliably and divide it according to the susceptibility of geological disaster is of great significance. Based on the historical collapse data of Zhejiang Province, this paper selects the evaluation indexes of water flow intensity index (SPI), terrain wetness index (TWI), land use type, slope aspect, slope, annual rainfall, river network density, elevation, road density, plane curvature, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and other factors. Based on the frequency ratio model (FR), random forest model (RF) and logistic regression model (LR), the susceptibility zoning of geological disasters in Zhejiang Province is carried out. The results show that: (1) The high and extremely high risk areas in Zhejiang province are mainly distributed near the river system and road network in the high altitude area; (2) In terms of the evaluation effect of comprehensive PR curve, the random forest model has a better evaluation effect than other models; (3) With the increase of the vulnerability level, the proportion of disasters under each model zoning is gradually increasing, indicating that the zoning effect of each model is good; 4) Quzhou city, Jinhua City, Wenzhou city and Shaoxing city in Zhejiang Province account for a large proportion of the high susceptibility areas and above. The results of vulnerability zoning can provide reference for geological hazard prevention and land planning in Zhejiang province.