Geological and economic risk assessment for territories of hazardous geological and technogenic processes (exemplified by Solotvyno township)

Abstract

Purpose. Assessing the risks of economic and social losses caused by the activization of hazardous natural geological and technogenic processes to establish the hazards of living in post-mining areas, with a view to developing strategies for their amelioration. Methodology. Field observations were carried out to determine the state of the geological environment of the territory and individual engineering objects. The assessment of the territory stability was done relying on the mechanical and mathematical basics of engineering geology in conjunction with the approaches of system analysis and the theory of engineering and geological similarity. Methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics were used for the expert assessment and risk analysis. Cartographic materials were compiled using GIS and digital simulation methods implemented on the example of Solotvyno township. As the source material, the GIS database (geological, engineering-geological, hydrogeological, and so on), compiled at the Institute of Geological Sciences of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine for the territory of Solotvyno, was used alongside with the works assessing the occurrence of natural as well as man-induced processes. Findings. It has been established that the most dangerous geological and technogenic hazards on the territory examined are karst-suffusion processes, whose probability in the central part of the territory is 1. At the object level, the economic risk (4.35 10-3 thousand UAH/m2 year) has been estimated, which shows the need for protective engineering measures due to an individual risk (5.86 10-4 people/person year). This is a significant value as compared with the average one for the territory of Ukraine. Integrated and differentiated economic risks have been calculated for the territory of Solotvyno, with the distribution of risks visualized on schematic maps. Originality. The scheme for assessing the risk of hazardous geological and technogenic processes on the post-mining territory has been developed. The combined use of differentiated and integrated assessments of economic risks at the locality and object levels would optimize managerial decisions on protection against geological hazards and would permit the development of a high-quality system for settlement monitoring. Practical value. The implementation of the S&T results obtained will enhance the efficiency of the monitoring and engineering protection systems developed for the territories with the possible occurrence of major emergencies.