Abstract
This paper presents a physically based time series model that relates groundwater level fluctuations to precipitation and evapotranspiration. The model is based on the nonlinear relation between the degree of water saturation of the subsoil and the groundwater recharge. The model is written in state-space form, while the extended Kalman filter is used to estimate the state equation. An example application shows that the model performs very well and that the addition of physical knowledge is a valuable extension to standard linear transfer function-noise models.
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