GEOGRAPHY OF MIGRATIONS IN POPULATION OF UKRAINE: CONSEQUENCES OF RUSSIAN AGGRESSION

Abstract

Population migrations (causes, regions of departure/arrival, directions, scope, intensity, and consequences) are predefined by economic, social, political, inter-confessional, interethnic, ecological and other factors. Problems of migration in Ukraine have become specifically painful under the conditions of russia’s war aggression and its invasion of the sovereign state of Ukraine in 2014. It was in the pre-war peaceful period (2006–2013) that migration flows in Ukraine became stable both quantitatively and in aspects of their major directions. The majority of regions (25 of 27) showed a positive interstate balance of population. Interregional migrants were attracted by 7 regions (City of Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast, Kharkiv Oblast, Odesa Oblast, City of Sevastopol, Autonomous Republic of Crimea, and Chernivtsi Oblast), while 20 regions had a negative balance of this type of migration. In the conditions of russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine (2014–2021), the interstate migration balance was still positive, but its volume was down by 30% (with no figures available for the temporarily occupied territories). The disproportion between the figures of interregional migration available for oblasts grew (in comparison to the pre-war period) 1,6 times. The Kyiv Oblast and the City of Kyiv, together with the Kharkiv, Odesa, Dnipropetrovsk, Lviv and Ivano-Frankivsk oblasts, have become the most attractive localities for migrants from other Ukrainian regions. Significant growth was observed in interregional migrants who departed from the localities of direct combat activity (Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizzia, and Kherson oblasts). A new category of forced migrants—internally displaced persons—appeared. The russia’s full-scale war against Ukraine (beginning on February 24, 2022) has resulted in the occurrence of substantial forced migration flows. The war has brought an increase in the number of refugees, internally displaced persons, temporarily protected persons (when abroad), forcibly transferred persons (to Russia), etc. The directions and the scale of migration flows depend on the geography of the hostilities. Spatial specificities of interstate and interregional migrations in the population of Ukraine are defined for the prewar period, the period of russia’s hybrid war against Ukraine (2014–2021), and the full-scale russian-Ukrainian war (beginning on February 24, 2022). The scope and the directions of migrant departures/arrivals are disclosed, as well as their effect on the dynamics of population number in Ukraine and its regions.