Abstract
Case fatality rate (CFR) and doubling time are important characteristics of any epidemic. For coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), wide variations in the CFR and doubling time have been noted among various countries. Early in the epidemic, CFR calculations involving all patients as denominator do not account for the hospitalised patients who are ill and will die in the future. Hence, we calculated cumulative CFR (cCFR) using only patients whose final clinical outcomes were known at a certain time point. We also estimated the daily average doubling time. Calculating CFR using this method leads to temporal stability in the fatality rates, the cCFR stabilises at different values for different countries. The possible reasons for this are an improved outcome rate by the end of the epidemic and a wider testing strategy. The United States, France, Turkey and China had high cCFR at the start due to low outcome rate. By 22 April, Germany, China and South Korea had a low cCFR. China and South Korea controlled the epidemic and achieved high doubling times. The doubling time in Russia did not cross 10 days during the study period.
Highlights
Case fatality rate (CFR) and doubling time are important parameters for judging the extent, rate and severity of an outbreak like COVID-19
CFR is calculated by dividing the number of deaths due to a disease by the total number of individuals detected with the disease
The cumulative CFR (cCFR) in our analysis was calculated by dividing the total number of deaths at any time point by the sum of deaths and recoveries at that time point [3]
Summary
Case fatality rate (CFR) and doubling time are important parameters for judging the extent, rate and severity of an outbreak like COVID-19. CFR is an effective measure of the lethality of the disease and doubling time is used to track the rate at which the outbreak is progressing. The cCFR in our analysis was calculated by dividing the total number of deaths at any time point by the sum of deaths and recoveries at that time point [3].
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