Geographical patterns of fertility decline in Guangdong: China's population policy through the censuses of 1982 and 1990.

Abstract

This paper examined patterns of fertility decline during 1982-90 in 93 contiguous subareas in Guangdong province, China. Data were obtained from the 1982 and 1990 censuses. Background information is provided on the total fertility rate (TFR) and decline in China, over time, with regard to regional differences, policy, and development. The three types of topography are associated with different levels of development in Guangdong. The TFR in Guangdong prior to 1971 ranged from 5.3 to 6.3, which was lower than the national average. Since 1971, TFR has been declining but has been higher than China's TFR. TFR in Guangdong declined from 5.4 to 2.7 (3.0 in rural areas) during 1971-90. Guangdong TFR in 1981 and 1989 indicates a decline from 3.54 to 2.94. The highest TFR was 5.47 in Wuhua county of the northeast mountain region. The lowest TFR was in Foshan in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In 1989, the highest TFR was 4.53 in Wuhua county, but the lowest shifted to 0.91 in Bao'an county in the periphery of Shenzhen City. TFR can be grouped as low (under 2.5), medium (2.5-3.5), and high (over 3.5). Low TFR occurred in 6 counties and 4 cities in the PRD and in 6 other cities. Medium TFR occurred in 8 counties in the PRD, 4 counties in the Han River Delta, and subareas in mountain regions. High TFR was in counties of the northern and northeastern mountains and in the southwest. TFR declined and spread throughout the PRD and 5 cities outside the PRD. By 1989, high TFR remained in the southwest. TFR converged toward medium levels. Economic reforms and the implementation of the one-child policy were geographically selective.