Abstract
Seasonal changes in environmental drivers – such as temperature, rainfall, and resource availability – have the potential to shape infection dynamics through their reverberating effects on biological processes including host abundance and susceptibility to infection. However, seasonality varies geographically. We therefore expect marked differences in infection dynamics between regions with different seasonal patterns. By pairing extensive Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) surveillance data – 65 358 individual bird samples from 12 species of dabbling ducks sampled at 174 locations across North America – with quantification of seasonality using remote sensed data indicative for primary productivity (normalised differenced vegetation index, NDVI), we provide evidence that seasonal dynamics influence infection dynamics across a continent. More pronounced epidemics were seen to occur in regions experiencing a higher degree of seasonality, and epidemics of lower amplitude and longer duration occurred in regions with a more protracted and lower seasonal amplitude. These results demonstrate the potential importance of geographic variation in seasonality for explaining geographic variation in the dynamics of infectious diseases in wildlife.
Highlights
Conspicuous seasonal dynamics, characterised by predictable annual peaks and troughs in disease incidence, have been demonstrated for a wide range of infectious diseases in humans
Regional infection dynamics The empirical infection data, revealed seasonal dynamics in infection incidence within all three clusters, with a rapid increase in incidence followed by a gradual decline towards the annual nadir
Seasonality is recognized as a key driver in the dynamics of a wide range of infectious diseases (Altizer, et al 2006, Fine, et al 1982)
Summary
Conspicuous seasonal dynamics, characterised by predictable annual peaks and troughs in disease incidence, have been demonstrated for a wide range of infectious diseases in humans. Childhood infections such as measles (Fine, et al 1982), waterborne infections such as cholera Fewer examples exist for wildlife systems, similar dynamics have been demonstrated suggesting that seasonality in infectious disease may be a general pattern (Altizer, et al 2006). Those, in turn, have the potential to induce seasonal variation in so called intrinsic drivers that fundamentally shape infection dynamics such as susceptibility to infection, host density, and contact rate Those, in turn, have the potential to induce seasonal variation in so called intrinsic drivers that fundamentally shape infection dynamics such as susceptibility to infection, host density, and contact rate (e.g. Hosseini, et al 2004, Koelle, et al 2004), as well as pathogen survival and viability (e.g. Herrick, et al 2013, Stallknecht, et al 1990)
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