Geographic variation in Pacific herring growth in response to regime shifts in the North Pacific Ocean

Abstract

Pacific herring populations at eight North Pacific Rim locations were simulated to compare basin-wide geographic variations in age-specific growth due to environmental influences on marine productivity and population-specific responses to regime shifts. Temperature and zooplankton abundance from a three-dimensional lower-trophic ecosystem model (NEMURO: North Pacific Ecosystem Model for Understanding Regional Oceanography) simulation from 1948 to 2002 were used as inputs to a herring bioenergetics growth model. Herring populations from California, the west coast of Vancouver Island (WCVI), Prince William Sound (PWS), Togiak Alaska, the western Bering Sea (WBS), the Sea of Okhotsk (SO), Sakhalin, and Peter the Great Bay (PGB) were examined. The half-saturation coefficients of herring feeding were calibrated to climatological conditions at each of the eight locations to reproduce averaged size-at-age data. The depth of averaging used for water temperature and zooplankton, and the maximum consumption rate parameter, were made specific to each location. Using the calibrated half-saturation coefficients, the 1948–2002 period was then simulated using daily values of water temperature and zooplankton densities interpolated from monthly model output. To detect regime shifts in simulated temperatures, zooplankton and herring growth rates, we applied sequential t-test analyses on the 54years of hindcast simulation values. The detected shifts of herring age-5 growth showed closest match (69%) to the regime shift years (1957/58, 1970/71, 1976/77, 1988/89, 1998/99). We explored relationships among locations using cluster and principal component analyses. The first principal component of water temperature showed good correspondence to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and all zooplankton groups showed a pan-Pacific decrease after the 1976/77 regime shift. However, the first principal component of herring growth rate showed decreased growth at the SO, PWS, WCVI and California locations and increased growth at the Sakhalin, WBS and Togiak locations after 1977. The SO location belonged to the same cluster as the location in with the eastern North Pacific. The calibrated half-saturation coefficients affected the degree to which growth was sensitive to interannual variation in water temperature versus zooplankton. For example, the half-saturation values for the SO location resulted in very efficient feeding that shifted the sensitivity of herring growth from food to temperature. The model results demonstrate how geographic specificity of bioenergetics parameters, coupled with location-specific variation in temperature and food, can combine to determine local and regional responses of fish growth to climate forcing.