Geographic Spread and Control of 2019-nCoV in the Absence of Vaccine

Abstract

Presently the world is facing an extremely tough time due to the prevalence of the Novel Coronavirus, 2019-nCoV or COVID-19, which has been declared a pandemic by WHO. The virus usually transmits via droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Since there is no vaccine to prevent the disease, social distancing and proper quarantine of infected persons are needed. To include and quantify the spatial effect of the pandemic regarding the geotemporal development of 2019-nCoV, a mathematical model of partial differential equations is essential. In this chapter a diffusion model has been developed by dividing the total population of constant size into four classes: susceptible population, infected population, quarantined population and recovered population. Here the disease transmission factor for both infected and quarantined population into the susceptible population are in more general form. Looking for a travelling wave solution this model can give the wave speed at which the disease 2019-nCoV spread. Additionally it can be predicted whether the total population in forward time will become susceptible or not in the absence of vaccine.