Geographic Specificity, Tornadoes, and Protective Action

Abstract

AbstractIn 2007, the National Weather Service (NWS) began using storm-based warnings (SBWs) rather than countywide warnings. Some analysts have examined the effects of this change, but little empirical research has yet to focus on the public response. Using a random digit dialing sample and a computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) system, data were collected that focused on protective action decision making in counties that were affected by a severe storm or tornado warning. Based on those data, the following paper examines the influence of these new storm-based warnings on protective action decision making by the public. While a significant relationship between being inside the warning polygon and taking protective action was not found, the authors were able to conclude that polygon size is an important factor. Given these mixed results, it is suggested that future work on storm-based warnings focus on the warnings’ dissemination and reception, as well as the optimization of the polygons themselves. It is suggested that the complexities associated with communicating with these risk areas complicate the dissemination process and create difficulties in the public understanding of the warning. The possible need for optimization is reinforced by the significance of the track proximity and polygon-sized variables. In addition, a smaller polygon resulted in protective action, in particular, sheltering. With regard to the preparedness and sociodemographic variables, the study’s results agreed with previous findings on the importance of a family emergency plan. Unlike earlier research this study did not find past experience or education level significant within the regression model and showed mixed results of gender.