Abstract
Dengue Fever (DF) is one of the world’s most rapidly spreading mosquito-borne viral diseases leading to increased risk of premature mortality and requires critical amount of health care cost. The present work is aimed at investigating the spatial and temporal distribution of DF in Civil Lines Zone of Delhi, capital city of India using Kulldorff’s space-time permutation method over a period of 2010–2012. GIS technique such as kernel density and directional distribution have been used to determine the spatial diffusion patterns of DF incidences. Also, Pearson correlation matrix has been used to determine spatial relationship of environmental factor such as wind speed with DF incidences. Highest kernel (infection) density has been found for the year 2010 ranging from 7.62 to 8.89 per km2 approximately. The most affected age group was found to be16–30 years and out of the total confirmed dengue cases 63% were males and 37% were females. The study is successful in detecting the spatio-temporal clusters having higher risk of DF outbreaks in Delhi and negative association of wind speed with DF incidences has been observed. Thus, confirming environmental factors in addition to other socio-economic, demographic and physiographic factors are responsible for the change in the trend of DF incidences over the study period.
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