Geographic distribution prediction of an invading species in Mexico: the case of the monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus)

Abstract

Objective: To determine the potential distribution of the monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) in Mexico. Design/methodology/approach: The study generated the model with confirmed presences of the species, the MaxEnt algorithm, and bioclimatic and elevation information. The evaluation, calibration and selection were carried out with the kuenm package in R. The model generated was projected to the geographic space of Mexico. Results: The model estimated the most favorable areas for the species in Mexico, based on the similarity of the climate and elevation conditions of the sites with its natural distribution. The most favorable sites for the species are distributed in the central–southern regions of the country. Variables influencing its distribution are derived from temperature, precipitation and elevation. Limitations on study/implications: The model can contribute to the planning of management and monitoring strategies that mitigate the invasion of this species. Findings/conclusions: The areas in Mexico where there is a high risk of invasion by the monk parakeet were identified.