Abstract
Spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae) are the main tropical pests in Central and South America of cultivated pastures. We aimed to estimate the potential distribution ofAeneolamia varia, A. lepidior, A. reducta, Prosapia simulans, Zulia carbonaria, andZ. pubescensthroughout the Neotropics using ecological niche modeling. These six insect species are common in Colombia and cause large economic losses. Records of these species, prior to the year 2000, were compiled from human observations, specimens from CIAT Arthropod Reference Collection (CIATARC), Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), speciesLink (splink), and an extensive literature review. Different ecological niche models (ENMs) were generated for each species: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt), generalized linear (GLM), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), and random forest model (RF). Bioclimatic datasets were obtained from WorldClim and the 19 available variables were used as predictors. Future changes in the potential geographical distribution were simulated in ENMs generated based on climate change projections for 2050 in two scenarios: optimistic and pessimistic. The results suggest that (i) Colombian spittlebugs impose an important threat toUrochloaproduction in different South American countries, (ii) each spittlebug species has a unique geographic distribution pattern, (iii) in the future the six species are likely to invade new geographic areas even in an optimistic scenario, (iv)A. lepidiorandA. reductashowed a higher number of suitable habitats across Colombia, Venezuela, Brazil, Peru, and Ecuador, where predicted risk is more severe. Our data will allow to (i) monitor the dispersion of these spittlebug species, (ii) design strategies for integrated spittlebug management that include resistant cultivars adoption to mitigate potential economic damage, and (iii) implement regulatory actions to prevent their introduction and spread in geographic areas where the species are not yet found.
Highlights
In the neotropics wide areas are planted in grasses, being Urochloa spp
48, 186, 19, 71, 55, and 120 points were used for A. lepidior, A. reducta, A. varia, P. simulans, Z. carbonaria, and Z. pubescens, respectively
In our study ecological niche models (ENMs) of the occurrence data had a high grade of accuracy given the sample size of five species, except for A. varia, for modeling (>25 records)
Summary
In the neotropics wide areas are planted in grasses, being Urochloa spp. Brachiaria spp.) the most extensive forage monoculture (Ghimire et al, 2015; Worthington et al, 2021). Its economic impact is estimated at USD12.4 million in Mexico, Central America, Colombia, and Brazil, the largest contribution comes from U. brizantha Marandu in Brazil with USD 6.3 million (White et al, 2013). The major biotic stress affecting forage production and its quality in this region is caused by spittlebugs (Hemiptera: Cercopidae). A large group of species causes severe damage in susceptible grasslands (Cardona et al, 2004) with economic losses estimated at USD 840–2,100 million per year in all host crops (Thompson, 2004)
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